Did we just experience the mother of all head fakes in the bond market?
weeklytearsheet.substack.com
The last couple of weeks had a pretty dramatic move lower in bond yields. The “higher for longer” narrative has been replaced by investors pricing in further rate cuts next year. Sentiment seems to hang on every word out of the Fed and each individual piece of economic data. We have so many conflicting signals about the economy that it seems like everyone has a story they can spin from the data. Given that 2024 is an election year, these takes include a lot of partisans talking their political book, and a lot of strategists who got some macro bets wrong.
Did we just experience the mother of all head fakes in the bond market?
Did we just experience the mother of all head…
Did we just experience the mother of all head fakes in the bond market?
The last couple of weeks had a pretty dramatic move lower in bond yields. The “higher for longer” narrative has been replaced by investors pricing in further rate cuts next year. Sentiment seems to hang on every word out of the Fed and each individual piece of economic data. We have so many conflicting signals about the economy that it seems like everyone has a story they can spin from the data. Given that 2024 is an election year, these takes include a lot of partisans talking their political book, and a lot of strategists who got some macro bets wrong.