Investors who were hoping for indications that the Fed is going to stop tightening were disappointed last week. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that "The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting," she told the Texas Bankers Association in San Antonio. "As of today, though, we aren’t there yet." And though inflation is down from last year's peaks and the economy overall is less out of balance than it had been, she said, "we haven’t yet made the progress we need to make" on inflation. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard talked about the Fed needing to take out some “insurance” against inflation by maybe hiking a little bit more.
Great summary Brent. That is a lot of information but very much aligned with my thinking. The Fed will likely "skip" but they won't "pause". It just so-happens that the Fed meets every 1-2 months and their rate decisions shouldn't be dictated by their meeting schedule (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
The labor force will continue to be challenging. I'll add in the topic that no one seems to be willing to discuss: difficulty leveraging the big and traditionally reliable work force of illegal immigrants who have been a foundation for the past 50 years. And, a new one, millennials who don't want to do entry level jobs because they "believe" they can make enough money in gig jobs (Uber), cyrpto, and influencer roles on social media.
And, commercial property owners better figure out how to transition their real estate to multifamily in years, not decades.
Great summary Brent. That is a lot of information but very much aligned with my thinking. The Fed will likely "skip" but they won't "pause". It just so-happens that the Fed meets every 1-2 months and their rate decisions shouldn't be dictated by their meeting schedule (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
The labor force will continue to be challenging. I'll add in the topic that no one seems to be willing to discuss: difficulty leveraging the big and traditionally reliable work force of illegal immigrants who have been a foundation for the past 50 years. And, a new one, millennials who don't want to do entry level jobs because they "believe" they can make enough money in gig jobs (Uber), cyrpto, and influencer roles on social media.
And, commercial property owners better figure out how to transition their real estate to multifamily in years, not decades.
It's a brave new world.