All of the sound bites I get from owners and CEOs aligns with your concern about new home creation. The bottom fell out of the purchase market in early October. The question now is whether or not it will recover in the spring buying season. Interest rates will definitely play a big factor. If home purchase doesn't pick up, I expect to see a lot of pressure on home prices.
This is especially true if the builders used floating-rate debt to finance construction. The negative carry on these properties is going to eat into cash.
All of the sound bites I get from owners and CEOs aligns with your concern about new home creation. The bottom fell out of the purchase market in early October. The question now is whether or not it will recover in the spring buying season. Interest rates will definitely play a big factor. If home purchase doesn't pick up, I expect to see a lot of pressure on home prices.
This is especially true if the builders used floating-rate debt to finance construction. The negative carry on these properties is going to eat into cash.