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Unions and the 2% inflation target
The UAW wants the social contract back
Sep 11
•
Brent T Nyitray
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Unions and the 2% inflation target
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August 2023
Is 5.9% GDP growth in the third quarter realistic?
Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole last Friday, and didn’t break any new ground on the Fed’s guidance. Powell emphasized the Fed’s commitment to the 2…
Aug 28
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Brent T Nyitray
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Is 5.9% GDP growth in the third quarter realistic?
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The Weekly Tearsheet: Housing affordability in the US.
The consumer price index showed that inflation continues to moderate. Prices rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. Shelter accounted for…
Aug 14
•
Brent T Nyitray
2
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The Weekly Tearsheet: Housing affordability in the US.
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July 2023
The inflationary and deflationary forces emanating out of Asia.
As expected, the Fed hiked the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points at the July FOMC meeting. Investors hoping to hear an “all-clear” signal from the Fed…
Jul 31
•
Brent T Nyitray
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The inflationary and deflationary forces emanating out of Asia.
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Where is the recession we were promised?
Markets spent last week focusing on earnings with little important economic news. The upcoming week will be dominated by the Fed meeting on Tuesday and…
Jul 24
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Brent T Nyitray
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Where is the recession we were promised?
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Are we about to see a renaissance in homebuilding?
Despite all of the gloom out there for the real estate sector, a bright spot is potentially emerging at long last: homebuilding. Over the past couple of…
Jul 5
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Brent T Nyitray
3
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Are we about to see a renaissance in homebuilding?
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June 2023
Week in Review: Plotting the Fed Funds Forecast over time
As expected, the Fed delivered a “hawkish pause” at its June meeting last week. The Fed maintained the Fed Funds rate at its current level, but signaled…
Jun 20
•
Brent T Nyitray
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Week in Review: Plotting the Fed Funds Forecast over time
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The Weekly Tearsheet: Predicting the Fed's next move
Last week was relatively uneventful as we had little economic data to work with and the Fed is in the quiet period ahead of the June 15-16 FOMC meeting…
Jun 12
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Brent T Nyitray
2
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The Weekly Tearsheet: Predicting the Fed's next move
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May 2023
Week In Review: More hawkish Fed-Speak.
Last week, the markets priced in another quarter point increase in the Fed Funds rate. The probability of a June 25 basis point hike increased from 18…
May 31
•
Brent T Nyitray
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Week In Review: More hawkish Fed-Speak.
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Week In Review: Hawkish statements out of the Fed keep the pressure on rates.
Investors who were hoping for indications that the Fed is going to stop tightening were disappointed last week. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said…
May 22
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Brent T Nyitray
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Week In Review: Hawkish statements out of the Fed keep the pressure on rates.
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The Weekly Tearsheet: Can a liability be an asset?
As expected, the Fed hiked the Fed Funds rate to 5% last week. It removed language from the FOMC statement saying that further hikes might be…
May 8
•
Brent T Nyitray
1
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The Weekly Tearsheet: Can a liability be an asset?
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The Weekly Tearsheet: GDP and the ECI. Are we looking at stagflation?
Last week had a lot of important economic data, and two reports stood out. First GDP grew at a paltry 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023. The increase in…
May 1
•
Brent T Nyitray
1
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The Weekly Tearsheet: GDP and the ECI. Are we looking at stagflation?
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